In the October 2026 billing month, the system-wide average supply increased to 20,493 MW, 1.4% higher than the previous billing month. The average system-wide demand rose to 14,793 MW, a 4.3% incline from the previous month. As demand increase exceeded the growth in supply, the average system-wide supply margin declined from 3,957 MW to 3,664 MW.
Across the grids, the supply-demand conditions varied. Luzon recorded a lower supply margin by 676 MW, while Visayas and Mindanao recorded higher supply margins by 97 MW and 285 MW, respectively. These changes were driven by variations in outages, available supply, demand levels, grid conditions, and HVDC link power flows. With a lower overall supply margin, the average market price increased by 18.4%, from 7.43 PHP/kWh in September to 8.79 PHP/kWh in October 2026.
In Luzon, average supply decreased by 0.9%, while average demand increased by 6.9%. Average prices increased to 7.83 PHP/kWh from 5.18 PHP/kWh. Despite Luzon recording a supply margin of 3,100 MW, several outages contributed to the increase in price level during the period.
In the Visayas, the average supply rose by 8.7% as some of the major plants returned to service, while average demand dropped by 0.6%. The average market price declined by 9.9%, from 12.42 PHP/kWh to 11.19 PHP/kWh as high market clearing price levels eased coupled with the triggering and application of the regional Secondary Price Cap (SPC). Despite the increase in regional supply level, the System Operator (SO) declared multiple Yellow and Red Alerts during the early evening period as Visayas demand ramps up to nighttime peak demand levels.
Visayas continued to rely on the supply from Luzon and Mindanao via the Luzon-Visayas and the Mindanao-Visayas HVDC interconnections to meet the regional demand.
In Mindanao, average supply surged by 8.1%, while average demand decreased by 2.9%. The average market price dropped by 12.3%, from 12.61 PHP/kWh to 11.06 PHP/kWh. Despite improved supply conditions, high market clearing price levels triggered the application of the regional Secondary Price Cap (SPC) in Mindanao as well.
HVDC Operating Conditions Continued to Influence Regional Prices
Under normal operating conditions, the Visayas grid is supported by power imports from Luzon and Mindanao through the Luzon-Visayas and Mindanao-Visayas HVDC interconnections. Thus, electricity transfers between the regions continued to influence regional market prices in October.
Conditions along the Luzon–Visayas interconnection improved, with periods of price separation declining from approximately 78% in September to 43% in October. This allowed greater opportunities for lower-priced electricity from Luzon to supply demand in the Visayas. Meanwhile, price separation along the Mindanao–Visayas interconnection increased from approximately 7% to 20% during the billing period. Despite these conditions, the interconnection continued to support electricity transfers between the two regions.
These developments demonstrate the importance of reliable transmission facilities in managing electricity transfers and improving market integration across the country’s three major grids.
Regulatory Pricing Measures Continue to Influence Market Outcomes
The regional Secondary Price Cap (SPC) continued to apply in the Visayas and Mindanao during the October billing period, helping limit the occurrence of sustained high wholesale electricity prices under the conditions prescribed by the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC).
The SPC was applied during approximately 18.5% of trading intervals in the Visayas and 16.8% in Mindanao. Other market pricing mechanisms, including Administered Pricing and the Price Substitution Methodology, were also applied during certain trading intervals in accordance with the applicable market rules. These mechanisms form part of the regulatory framework governing wholesale electricity market pricing under specified market conditions.
Renewable Energy Accounts for 27% of October Generation
Renewable energy (RE) accounted for approximately 27% of total electricity generation in October 2026, slightly lower than the 28% recorded in September but higher than the 25% share in August.
Among renewable energy sources, hydropower’s share declined from 11.3% to 9.1%, while solar generation increased its share from 5.3% to 6.3%. Geothermal generation accounted for 7.9%, compared with 8.3% in September. Meanwhile, coal remained the largest source of electricity generation, accounting for 52.8% of the total, up from 51.7% in the previous month. The changes reflect variations in the contribution of different generation technologies to the overall electricity supply mix during the billing period.
Spot Market Volume and Trading Amount Increased
The volume of electricity traded in the spot market increased by 3.1%, from 1,228 gigawatt-hours (GWh) in September to 1,266 GWh in October 2026. This represented 12.5% of the total traded electricity volume, compared with 12.2% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the Effective Spot Settlement Price (ESSP) increased from PhP 9.30/kWh to PhP 9.79/kWh. The total trading amount likewise increased from PhP 26.62 billion to PhP 30.21 billion during the billing period.
Reserve/Ancillary Services Market
Following recent developments in the reserve market, and pursuant to ERC Case No. 2023-002 RC, the commercial dispatch and settlement of the WESM Reserve Market were placed under suspension effective 0005H on 14 October 2026 and shall remain suspended until further orders from the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC). In view of the suspension, the datasets below only cover 26 September to 14 October 2026.
In the reserve market, reserve prices in Luzon mostly decreased. Regulation Down and Regulation Up prices decreased by 17.27% and 1.39%, respectively. While Contingency Reserve prices rose by 22.74%, and Dispatchable Reserve prices significantly dropped by 51.91%.
In the Visayas, Regulation Down and Regulation Up prices inclined by 6.38% and 17.03%, respectively. Contingency Reserve Prices increased by 7.37%, and Dispatchable Reserves lowered by 4.55%.
In Mindanao, reserve prices decreased across all reserve categories. Regulation Down and Regulation Up prices declined by 96.99% and 96.36%, respectively. Contingency and Dispatchable Reserves, prices decreased by 30.07% and 81.01%, respectively.
